For most of this year, Australia’s property story was a tale of two markets: Sydney and Melbourne falling while Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth kept climbing. That story just changed. The latest data shows the downturn has spread nationwide, with even the previously resilient mid-sized capitals now turning down. With ANZ forecasting a peak-to-trough fall of more than 10 per cent, here’s the plain-language guide to what a genuinely national correction means.
What the Data Shows
The July figures marked a turning point. Cotality’s national Home Value Index fell 0.7 per cent, the largest single-month decline since December 2022, and crucially, the downturn extended beyond the two biggest cities for the first time.
Brisbane and Adelaide both recorded their second consecutive month of falls, down 0.6 and 0.2 per cent, while Perth managed only a slight 0.1 per cent rise after a downward revision. Sydney and Melbourne continued to lead the declines, now well past 5 per cent below their peaks.
“The downturn is no longer confined to Sydney and Melbourne,” Cotality reported, as previously resilient mid-sized capitals moved into negative territory.
That’s the significant shift: this is now a broad-based national correction, not a two-city problem.
How Far Could Prices Fall
The forecasters have responded by downgrading their outlooks. ANZ Research now expects capital city prices to fall 4.3 per cent this year and 3.4 per cent next year, a downgrade from its earlier, milder forecast. Taken together, that would produce a peak-to-trough decline of around 10.6 per cent across the capital cities.
A double-digit fall is significant, though worth keeping in perspective: it follows years of strong gains, so it’s a correction from elevated levels rather than a collapse from normal ones. ANZ expects Sydney and Melbourne to lead the eventual recovery once rates start falling, likely around mid-2027, just as the mid-sized capitals that ran hardest begin to lose momentum.
Why It’s Spreading Now
The cause is the same force that hit Sydney and Melbourne first, finally reaching the rest. Higher interest rates have stripped borrowing power across the board, and the mid-sized capitals, after several years of strong growth, have now run up against their own affordability ceilings. Add the Federal Budget’s negative gearing and CGT changes weighing on investor demand, and the pressures that cooled the big two have caught up with Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.
In other words, no market was immune, they were just on different timelines. The affordability and interest-rate pressures simply reached them later.
What It Means Wherever You Are
The practical takeaways shift now that the correction is national. If you’re buying, the negotiating power that appeared first in Sydney and Melbourne is now emerging in the mid-sized capitals too, so buyers in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth may find conditions easing in their favour for the first time in years. If you’re selling, realistic pricing now matters everywhere, not just in the southern capitals, because the “our city is different” exception has largely closed. And if you’re holding, remember these are corrections from high peaks, and the structural drivers, population growth, undersupply, remain intact beneath the near-term softness. This is general information, not financial advice.
The Bottom Line
The property downturn has gone national, with Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth now joining Sydney and Melbourne in decline, and ANZ forecasting a peak-to-trough fall of around 10.6 per cent. It’s a broad correction from elevated levels rather than a collapse, and recovery is expected once rates fall in 2027. Wherever you are, the “different this time” local exceptions have mostly closed, so read your own market’s actual data and plan for a correction that’s now genuinely everywhere.
Epik Wire covers the property market in plain language for buyers, sellers and owners. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed.
