Australia’s housing downturn rolled into a sixth month in September, and the shape of it is changing. National home values fell another 1.1 per cent, and for the first time in this cycle, Sydney wasn’t the fastest-falling capital. That title went to Brisbane. Here’s the plain-language guide to the latest numbers.
The Headline Figures
Cotality’s Home Value Index fell 1.1 per cent in September, taking national dwelling values 5.2 per cent below their March peak. Over 12 months, values are now flat nationally.
The downturn is unusually broad. Every capital city except Darwin recorded a fall, 71 per cent of regional markets declined over the month, and 97 per cent of capital city suburbs were down in value over the three months to the end of September. Home sales over the past three months were 19.1 per cent lower than a year earlier.
Brisbane Takes the Lead
Brisbane recorded the sharpest monthly fall among the capitals, with values down 1.5 per cent, edging past Sydney’s 1.4 per cent decline. Canberra fell 1.1 per cent. Melbourne’s fall was milder, at 0.7 per cent, now a slower rate of decline than each of the mid-sized capitals.
That’s a significant shift. For most of this year, the correction was concentrated in the expensive east-coast markets. It has now reached the cities that held up longest.
Two Markets in One
Look at the annual numbers and the country splits in two.
Darwin is still up 11.9 per cent over the year and Perth 10.1 per cent, carried by strong growth earlier in 2026. Sydney is down 7.0 per cent and Melbourne 6.2 per cent. Sydney values are now 8.6 per cent below their February peak, a deeper fall than its 2022-23 downturn.
Why It’s Happening
The causes are well understood: four rate rises this year taking the cash rate to 4.60 per cent, stretched affordability, high living costs, weaker consumer sentiment, and the investor tax changes announced in May. With the Reserve Bank signalling it will raise rates again if needed, and its next decision due on 3 November, there’s little sign of near-term relief.
Some forecasters now warn of peak-to-trough falls of up to 15 per cent nationally before the market finds a floor.
What It Means for You
If you’re buying, conditions favour you more than they have in years. Prices are falling almost everywhere, sales volumes are down and sellers are more negotiable. The catch is borrowing power, which has also fallen, so get your pre-approval reassessed at today’s rates.
If you’re selling, price to the market as it is now, not as it was in March. In a falling market, an overpriced home tends to chase the market down over months rather than sell.
If you own and aren’t planning to move, falling values are only a paper loss. What matters more is whether your repayments are manageable. This is general information, not financial advice.
The Bottom Line
Home values fell 1.1 per cent in September, the sixth monthly fall in a row, leaving the national market 5.2 per cent below its March peak. Brisbane is now falling fastest, Sydney is down 8.6 per cent from its peak, and only Darwin rose last month. With higher rates and tax changes weighing on demand, buyers have more leverage, sellers need realism, and the bottom may still be some way off.
Epik Wire covers the property market in plain language for buyers, sellers and owners. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed.
