The federal government has confirmed it intends to reduce the number of people accessing the National Disability Insurance Scheme by approximately 160,000 over the next four years, as part of the broader reform package introduced to secure the scheme’s long-term sustainability.
The figure represents one of the clearest quantified targets to emerge from the government’s NDIS reform agenda, providing a concrete sense of scale to changes that have so far been discussed largely in terms of funding growth rates and structural adjustments.
How the Reduction Is Expected to Happen
The reduction is not expected to come primarily through removing existing participants from the scheme, but rather through the new access pathways being introduced for future entrants — particularly the Thriving Kids program, which redirects children aged eight and under with low-to-moderate support needs toward supports delivered through early childhood education, Medicare, and state-based systems rather than individual NDIS plans.
The shift toward functional capacity-based eligibility assessment, due to commence from 2028 rather than diagnosis-based access, is also expected to change who qualifies for the scheme going forward, though existing participants’ current plans are not immediately affected by this transition.
Who Could Be Affected
Children with low-to-moderate developmental delays or support needs represent the cohort most directly affected by these changes, given the explicit design of Thriving Kids as an alternative pathway for this group. The government has been at pains to stress that children with higher and more complex needs will retain full access to the NDIS under the new arrangements.
The Sustainability Argument
Health Minister Mark Butler has consistently framed these changes as necessary to keep the NDIS sustainable as Australia’s largest social program outside the Age Pension, with the broader reform package projected to save $37.8 billion over four years while the scheme itself continues growing in absolute terms each year.
What Critics Are Saying
Disability advocates and opposition politicians have raised concerns about how families will be supported through the transition, and whether state-based and Medicare-delivered alternatives will be adequately resourced and accessible, particularly in regional and remote areas where service availability is already limited.
What Families Should Do
Families with children currently on the NDIS, or considering an application, are encouraged to stay closely engaged with official updates as the Thriving Kids program rolls out from 1 July 2026, and to discuss any concerns about their child’s specific situation directly with their NDIS planner or a disability advocacy service.
Epik Wire is tracking every stage of the NDIS reform rollout closely. Subscribe to our newsletter for ongoing coverage.
