Where you’re trying to buy your first home in Australia makes an enormous difference to your chances, and new data lays bare just how wide that gap has become. The share of the market made up of first home buyers ranges from a high of 37 percent in the ACT down to just 27 percent in New South Wales and Queensland. For anyone trying to break into the market, those numbers tell a story worth understanding.
What the Data Shows
According to the latest housing data, first home buyers make up the largest share of the market in the ACT at 37.0 percent, followed closely by the Northern Territory at 36.6 percent and Tasmania at 33.4 percent. All three sit significantly above their respective ten-year averages, suggesting first home buyers are finding genuine opportunity in these markets.
At the other end of the scale, Queensland and New South Wales represent the smallest first home buyer shares at 27.0 percent each. Queensland’s share is notably below its own ten-year average of 27.3 percent, a sign that affordability pressures have been squeezing first home buyers out of a market that was, not long ago, considered one of the more accessible on the mainland.
Why the Gap Exists
The differences come down largely to affordability and competition. In the more affordable markets like the ACT, NT, and Tasmania, entry-level prices are within closer reach of average incomes, and first home buyers face less competition from cashed-up investors and interstate migrants. In NSW, the highest-priced market in the country, sheer price levels keep many first home buyers locked out, while in Queensland, years of strong price growth driven by interstate migration have eroded the affordability that once made it a first home buyer haven.
The Role of Government Schemes
Government support is playing a significant part in keeping first home buyers active where they can afford to be. The expanded First Home Guarantee, which allows eligible buyers to purchase with a 5 percent deposit while avoiding Lenders Mortgage Insurance, has been particularly impactful in the sub-$850,000 price bracket, which is exactly where first home buyers and investors increasingly compete.
Interestingly, some industry commentary suggests the rush of applications triggered by the expanded scheme has been so strong that lenders have at times struggled to process them quickly, a sign of just how much pent-up first home buyer demand the scheme has unlocked.
Where It’s Easiest to Break In
For first home buyers willing to be flexible on location, the data points clearly toward the more affordable capitals and regional centres. Beyond the ACT, NT, and Tasmania, regional markets across the country continue to offer the most accessible entry points, with lifestyle and commutable centres, the Hunter, Illawarra, and Central Coast in NSW, Ballarat and Bendigo in Victoria, and regional Queensland hubs, drawing first home buyers priced out of the capitals.
The Takeaway
The state-by-state divide is a reminder that there’s no single Australian property market, but many. For first home buyers, the practical lesson is that flexibility on location, combined with making full use of available government schemes, remains the most realistic path into ownership. Where you look matters just as much as when.
Epik Wire tracks first home buyer conditions across every state and region. Subscribe to our newsletter for clear property updates.
