Australia’s aged care workforce shortage will grow to more than 400,000 workers by 2050 unless dramatic action is taken now, according to a stark new report from the Committee for Economic Development of Australia.
The report, titled Duty of Care: Meeting the Aged Care Workforce Challenge, lands at a critical moment for the sector, with the federal government having just committed $3.7 billion in new aged care funding through the 2026-27 Budget — funding that workforce experts warn will struggle to deliver results without enough staff to deploy it.
The Scale of the Problem
CEDA’s modelling finds Australia needs at least 17,000 additional direct-care workers every single year over the next decade just to meet baseline standards of care. Direct-care roles include personal care assistants, nurses, and allied health staff — the people delivering hands-on support to older Australians every day.
“We will need at least 17,000 more direct aged-care workers each year in the next decade just to meet basic standards of care. These projections are based on conservative assumptions, and the situation may prove to be even more dire than this.”— Jarrod Ball, CEDA Chief Economist
By 2031, nearly 20 percent of Australia’s population will be aged over 65, up from around 16 percent today — meaning demand for care is set to keep climbing well beyond current projections, regardless of how funding settings change.
Why the Gap Keeps Widening
Multiple structural pressures are compounding the shortage. The median age of an aged care worker currently sits at 48, pointing to a workforce that is itself ageing out faster than new entrants are arriving. Pay gaps between aged care and comparable hospital roles continue to push experienced staff toward better-paying alternatives, while burnout, limited career progression pathways, and a persistently negative public perception of aged care work all compound recruitment difficulty.
Regional Australia faces the sharpest impact of all, with geographic isolation, limited local training pipelines, and reduced access to clinical placements making it significantly harder for rural and remote facilities to maintain safe staffing levels.
Funding Reform Without Workforce Reform Falls Short
From April 2026, a portion of provider funding has been directly linked to actual delivery against the sector’s 215-minute care minutes target through the Care Minutes Supplement framework — meaning facilities that cannot adequately staff their floors now face funding consequences on top of the existing quality and safety risks.
CEDA’s report makes 18 recommendations following extensive consultation with providers, training organisations, unions, and academics, with substantially improved wages and working conditions — including better rostering and pay that rises in line with responsibility — sitting at the centre of its proposed solutions.
What’s at Stake
CEDA’s warning is blunt: without building the workforce now, the sector will be structurally unable to provide the services Australians need, regardless of how much funding or reform is layered on top. The report frames this as placing an increasingly unsustainable caring burden on families and the broader health system if left unaddressed.
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