Australians needing aged care are facing wait times stretching up to 12 months in some cases, according to new research from the University of Queensland, with experts cautioning that the federal government’s latest funding investment is unlikely to resolve the bottleneck on its own.
The research lands as the sector absorbs the $3 billion aged care package confirmed in the May Federal Budget, which includes funding for thousands of new beds and expanded home care packages — investment widely welcomed by the sector, but which researchers argue addresses only part of the underlying problem.
Two Pressures Driving the Wait
According to the research, two structural pressures are stretching the aged care system simultaneously. The first is workforce shortages: aged care has long struggled to attract and retain staff, particularly in regional Australia, with wages historically lagging behind comparable sectors like nursing and disability care. The second is infrastructure constraints, with many residential aged care facilities already operating close to capacity while demand continues to climb, with projections showing the sector needs roughly 10,000 new beds every year just to keep pace.
Why More Funding Alone May Not Be Enough
The research points to a hard truth facing policymakers: infrastructure can be built relatively quickly once funding is committed, but developing a skilled, resilient workforce capable of staffing that infrastructure takes considerably longer. Sector leaders have echoed this concern following the Budget announcement, noting that investment in workforce capability, training, leadership and wellbeing needs to occur alongside infrastructure investment for any of it to translate into shorter wait times.
What’s Already Being Done on Wages
The government has made some progress on the wage side specifically. Following the Fair Work Commission’s Aged Care Work Value Case, approximately 400,000 aged care workers have already benefited from award wage increases, with a further wage increase scheduled for 1 August 2026 specifically for aged care nurses. Whether these wage gains are sufficient to meaningfully shift recruitment and retention remains an open question the sector continues to grapple with.
What Families Should Know Right Now
For families currently navigating the aged care system, the research is a sober reminder that wait times are unlikely to shorten dramatically in the near term, even with new funding flowing into the system. Families are encouraged to begin the My Aged Care assessment process as early as possible once a need is anticipated, rather than waiting until care becomes urgent, given how long the pathway from assessment to placement can currently take.
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