The property market is sending genuinely mixed signals right now, and reading them correctly matters. Auction clearance rates have ticked up to a 12-week high, which sounds like recovery. Yet home values are still falling, and the downturn has spread to almost every corner of the country. So which is it, turning point or false dawn? Here’s the plain-language guide to what’s really going on.
The Mixed Signals
On one hand, auctions are showing signs of life. The preliminary combined capital city clearance rate nudged up to around 56.5 per cent recently, its highest early success rate in about 12 weeks, with auction volumes rising as the market emerges from its mid-winter lull.
On the other hand, the fundamentals remain firmly in correction.
“More than three-quarters of capital city suburbs recorded a decline in home values over the past three months,” Cotality’s research shows.
National values fell 0.7 per cent in July, the largest monthly drop since December 2022, and final clearance rates have held below 50 per cent for around ten consecutive weeks. So the modest auction bounce is real, but so is the entrenched downturn underneath it.
How to Reconcile the Two
The key is understanding the difference between preliminary and final figures, and between sentiment and substance. Preliminary clearance rates (reported on the weekend) tend to look stronger than the final rates confirmed later in the week, once all results are counted. Recent final rates have stayed below 50 per cent even as preliminary figures flirt with the mid-50s.
And even the improved figure sits well below the decade average of around 68 per cent. So the “12-week high” is a high within a soft range, not a return to a healthy market. It signals the correction may be stabilising rather than reversing, buyers cautiously testing the water, not flooding back.
The Downturn Has Gone National
The bigger story is breadth. For the first time this cycle, the weakness has reached almost everywhere. Brisbane and Adelaide have posted consecutive monthly falls, and Perth barely held positive. Sydney and Melbourne continue to lead the declines, now several per cent below their peaks.
That’s the significant shift: this is no longer a two-city correction concentrated in overpriced pockets. Over three-quarters of capital city suburbs falling is a national market moving in one direction, even as auctions show flickers of life.
What It Means If You’re Buying
The mixed signals actually favour prepared buyers. The entrenched downturn means your negotiating power endures, prices are still falling, discounting is widening, and private treaty sales are taking longer with larger discounts. But the modest auction uptick is a gentle reminder that conditions won’t soften forever, so don’t wait indefinitely expecting an ever-better deal. Price your offers to recent comparable sales, treat passed-in auctions as negotiating opportunities, and act decisively when the right property appears at the right price.
What It Means If You’re Selling
The picture calls for realism with a sliver of encouragement. The slight auction improvement and rising volumes suggest confidence is tentatively returning, but with final clearance rates below 50 per cent and values still falling, pricing to the market remains essential. The gap between what vendors expect and what buyers will pay is precisely what’s keeping the market soft, so meeting the market, not last year’s peak, is what actually sells. This is general information, not financial advice.
The Bottom Line
Auctions ticking up to a 12-week high while prices keep falling isn’t a contradiction, it’s a soft market cautiously testing confidence within an entrenched, now-national correction. The bounce is real but modest, and it sits well below healthy-market levels. For buyers, negotiating power endures but won’t last forever; for sellers, realism still wins. Watch the final clearance rates, not just the preliminary headlines, because that’s where the real signal is.
Epik Wire covers the property market in plain language for buyers, sellers and owners. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed.
